the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. looking ahead to 5:00 eastern, what's coming up? >> we have mary ann bartels, head of tech and market analysis for merryl lynch. and then also the chief innovation officer at ibm to tell us the five inventions to watch in the next five years.

>> that will be interesting. that does it for our show. back to headquarters for the half time money report. >> here is where we stand now on the street, a modest loss right now for the dow. we have come back. there is the s&p. the nasdaq positive as well. here's what we're following on half time today. tech titans, apple, google, facebook, amazon which will emerge the winner in the battle for your world? debate it. it's the other tech company that underperformed the market last year. will 2013 be a window of opportunity for microsoft investors? baker and blodget go toe to toe. first our top story, the day after stocks got off to a rocking start. the best first day for the dow in four years. now what? we are trading today's action.

j.b., what do you make of today following what happened yesterday? >> you know, if you're bullish, what you want to see is a shol l shallow light volume pull back and not an extension of yesterday. the fact that we're flat and not giving back the gain is positive. typically the strength yesterday to today has been broad. i don't see anything not to like if you're of the bullish persuasion. >> i would say this is a heck of a way to back up yesterday. you didn't need to be off to the races today. you didn't want to see a wave of selling. >> buyer's remorse and everything else. >> stephanie? >> i think this is verywe were we have been aggressively buying the last two weeks. we ended the year with the least amount of cash on hand. what you want to do is use the volatility to your advantage.

if you have the big rallies like yesterday, you trim a bit, which is what we did. but you use the dips to take advantage of positioning yourself for 2013. once we get finalized with this deal of the debt ceiling and the other thing in march, then we can focus on fundamentals. i think the u.s. economy is stronger and can handle all the changes. and the global markets are also well. we get good data out of china, india, brazil. so you have to use the dips to position yourself. >> baker, are you a buyer today? >> this is a tradable market. this is not for scaredy pants investing in the market. you have to be invested in the market. invested in the cyclicals. you have to be in there. agree with stephanie, nice dollop of cash, in case you are buying on the dips. you don't want to chase a 5% mover, but you need an entry

point. >> josh, aren't you terrified that the insane people in our government will cause the country to default? >> we have people who think that's perfectly fine. they want what they want so they can cause the u.s. to default. >> they're not in the senate or in the white house light now, that swatch of people. if you look at the way the pros played the market in the fourth quarter of last year, the continuing play book, they're welcoming those types of systemic risk headlines, whether they're about europe or hey these guys want to go over the cliff or through sequester. >> isn't that the biggest risk facing any investor? >> always. when has that changed? >> the magnitude of issues on the table in front of us, we had the fiscal cliff, which by, i think it's fair to say, was an embarrassment the way it was handled in the nation's capitol. as henry says, we're staring at a coming debate which some people are looking forward to as march madness.

>> it will be march madness and volatile. that's why you do not chase these big rallies. but i think you use the opportunity, you pick your list, and you use the volatility. we'll have a couple of down days. could be really big down days. but i again think the u.s. is much stronger at 3.1% gdp. >> the biggest difference between professionals and amateurs in the fourth quarter, professionals were welcoming news that was shaking people out of stocks. the way money would come in there institutions and debart from retail investors. that's a pattern that continues even despite the enthusiasm. >> are the risks too be to be in the market between now and march? can you get the gains you want and then see what happens with the -- likely volatility heading into the debt ceiling negotiations? >> the bigger danger is not

being in the market. we talk about housing, financials, technology names. if you like the names, i wouldn't own a broad-based index and hold on to it good themes, good industries, you have to be along. it will be another hiccup in march. we'll get over it. we saw the market rally 5% over the last three days. if you weren't in the market the last three days, you're playing catch up already. that's the danger. you have to be in it. >> but we were down 4% at the end of the year, last ten days of the year, so we were just up 1% from where we were. so you can look at that as bullish. >> broadly speaking, if you're in the right sector -- ffrnl >> if your time limit is five years, ten years 15 years, and you are earning an annual income and you need somewhere to put that money, there's no rationale

reason for you to be afraid of volatility. that's the only way you get entries into this market. you can't buy after a day like yesterday fresh cash and not having been in. you have to take advantage of headline risk and all the things that everyone thinks they're supposed to be afraid of. >> what about the ten-year treasury then? that's attractive right here. >> ten-year treasury yesterday, every trader i talked to was watching the yield on that. if you get a decisive break above 2%, that will be a massive catalyst for flows to shift into equities. it has not quite happened yet in a convincing way, but you have to pay attention to that when you consider how much money now is in asset allocated accounts between bonds and stocks. apple, google, amazon, facebook, they are run by four of the most competitive ceos. with your money on the line who will rule in 2013? henry, we set this up as the big tech battle royale. you see the names on the wall.

you have tim cook, larry page, bezos and zuckerberg. >> fundamentally, they're all in good shape. amazon rules commerce. there's no question that everything is going that way. goingal is in a great position in search, and doing a good job with everybody. the stocks are a different story. valuation coming into play there. certainly it does with microsoft. with apple -- >> amazon. >> absolutely. amazon, incredibly high multiple, in part because people think they're investing now and they'll harvest that, raise their man gin over the next couple of years. >> how long does that last for? how long will the street give bezos the time to sacrifice short-term earnings for long-term gain? >> i have no idea. i can tell you he does not care. the reason that amazon is where it is is because he has been able to tune out wall street for 15 years, say we are going to invest for the long haul.

by the way, it's too bad more american companies don't do that. that's the way to actually create incredible value over the long-term. tune out the short-term noise. he has a lot of shareholders who completely buy in that. they're in that for five, ten years. >> in your past life, where would you rate amazon given it's pe and strategy that bezos has. what would you do? >> i have a very long time horizon. i own amazon. it's a legacy position from back in my stock trading days. worked out okay. that's because i have a long horizon. i don't care if the street wakes up one day and says we're tired of 145 xp, we're out of here. he's smart, he has a great team. they're wonderfully positioned. >> apple closed out the year with a bit of turbulence. >> but a nice gain. 30%. >> a nice comeback.

jeff gundlach was on the show, reiterating a important he made about his position on apple. we'll talk about it. >> i deeply believe, though, that apple is headed to $425 a share. >> $425. anybody agree with that? josh brown? >> here's the problem with that. it could happen, i don't think it will. that's not my opinion. when he came out he said the same thing at 700. you could have mocked at that point. the thing with apple, it's a sentiment thing. fundamentals have not changed. we had this massive bout of tax law selling at the end of last year, they put up a big first quarter. that 425 will look wildly off the marc. >> are the fundamentals as strong as they once were?

>> i disagree with josh, the fundamentals have changed. if the gross margin level comes in below guidance, yeah, we could be below 420. that's the bare case. product cycle story is strong. and i still think they'll put up a great quarter. >> we can't universally applaud jeff bezos for not caring about gross margins and then a breath later say apple should not launch the mini because gross mar gypp gins will go from 32 t. if that's a bear case for apple, that's a highly bullish risk/reward. >> short-term? >> i completely agree with that. apple the smart move from a business perspective right now is take your incredible profit margin and reinvest it.

lower price products. >> why should they give that away because they're worried about growth margins? >> are they putting enough money to work? the cash they have? that's one of the gripes lee coop heman had, he was on "ha "halftime" yesterday. >> i think they should go after the margin, get into the real growth engine of the smartphone market which right now is android, it's low-priced phones in china, india. same thing on the tablets. so you are taking that margin. it will hit the stock near-term, no question about it. >> do you think tim cook will do something like that? does he have the foresight to do that? >> i think so. you've already seen that with the mini. that will drive prices down a bit. i remember steve jobs said smaller tablets are a nonstarter they changed there.

i think they will go into it. this stepping back from the short-term, if you want apple to be around in 10, 20 years, that's what you wanted them to do. the profit margin is too high right now. >> what about facebook? we have not talked about facebook yet. talk about a company that had a hell of a comeback. >> one reason facebook stock got clobbered is they did that with the margin. they started to reinvest it. that's smart. you don't need a 50% operating margin when you have the opportunity they have. so many more american companies need do this. we're so obsessed with profits, you wanted to reinvest that in future growth. if they do that that will fix the american economy immediately. >> facebook should stay private. twitter should stay private if that regard. >> let's button this up. of the four companies we mentioned, what's the best buy right now? right as we sit here today? >> i wish it would be apple

because we own that. i think it's actually facebook. i think they're starting to demonstrate they can grow mobile and they ended their quarter at a billion dollar revenue run rate mobilized in mobile. i think that number can go higher this year. the expectations, people are skeptical about it. >> i think, believe it or not, google both from a valuation standpoint and from a momentum standpoint in terms of what's driving the business. one thing, maybe henry can comment on this, not finance bloggers and journalists but tech bloggers and journalists are talking about how google plus will not be a latching stock in 2013. >> one thing that appears to be happening, they're forcing people to use it or take it. that was the story -- >> they don't have to force people to use google hangouts. there's a lot to of momentum happening there. look, i think google is not talked about enough. >> all right. we have one facebook. one google.

>> i go with google, too. 72% of the android market. search is more and more prevalent it has a great business model. >> henry? >> i own all of them. index fund. >> take a stand. >> if you had to pick one. rhyme surprised no one has picked apple. two for google and one for facebook. >> facebook is a momentum stock right now. the problem is there's huge downside from a valuation perspective. revenue starts to decelerate. facebook will trade at 20 times earnings some day. right now it trades at 45 earnings. it could go higher but that's a risk. >> i think apple is in great shape. it's cheap. only 12 times earnings. >> that's not a bad price for a company that has the fundamentals that they have. >> if it's a transition year, which we're all agreeing that apple will make this transition, what's the time or risehorizon?

facebook looks like it wants to eat up the charts, but i agree with henry, if we're talking five years, how could you not like apple? >> on the way, they're two of wall street's biggest investors. where leon cooperman and dan lowe see promise. and what happens when one celebrity investor takes on another? that's happening right now at herbalife. and we tackle whether microsoft can give investors a new window of opportunity this year. try alka-seltzer. kills heartburn fast. yeehaw! tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550

tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account with a $50,000 deposit, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and get 6 months commission-free trades. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5373.

. >> on the plus side of the markets, bear markets usually proceed recessions. if you don't have recessions, you don't have a bear market. we at the macro level are optimistic. >> that was omega's leon cooperman who easily beat the market last year with gross returns of 32%. live on "halftime" he pulled become the curtain on his winning portfolio. he likes financials, citi and jpmorgan, well s fargo is ther as well. >> when you have the financials leading the year being overweight, the biggest fastest

moving ones makes the most sense. i'm not sure that same group of companies will outperform this year. >> why? >> it never happens. only in the last ten years have you had one back-to-back repeat. >> maybe it's not the first. will it be in the top three? that gets you a win also? >> my opinion is it gets tougher for these stocks. bank of america can't double again. it can't. law of large numbers. >> but you don't need it to put a 98%. >> i'm most -- on the long side out of that group of financials i'm most interested in citi, probably least in aig. it's over-owned, over-loved. everybody was expecting it to be this huge catalyst. i'm not sure i agree. i like the citigroup pick. >> you guys owned aig, didn't you? >> we did. >> they were all in this, loge, weiss, cramer. >> i would say aig is interesting. the government overhang that

everybody was waiting for. it never went down on that news. we were hoping it would go down so we could buy it back at a cheaper price. we bought it back. they sold off two of their divisions. they got 11 billion in capital. they're putting that on their balance sheet. the other names you want to focus on, outside of the banks, and i like them because i think the yield curve goes higher because of the u.s. economy. look at prudential, metlife, hartford. those stories are under the radar. >> henry, how about this call of cooperman that he likes qualcomm as sort of the best in that group and google as well. >> likes google. i defer to leon couoperman. >> but seriously about qualcomm's position being the cuts in a lot of stuff. >> it's a lot of way to play it a lot of these companies sell in, you're not having to pick a particular winner. selling into lots of them. it's a smart way to play it. >> how about dan lobe, yahoo!

big position there. aig, also gold. what about gold? >> i like gold. every central government in the world printing money. >> you almost seem like an apologist saying that. >> it underperformed last year. >> underperformed what? >> the stock market. >> still made money. >> i prefer silver over gold, if i was going go on a commodity play. typically 15-1. it's a little undervalued compared to gold. if i go long, i go gold. mr. paulson was long on mining stocks, and he didn't have a good year. >> anybody like yahoo!? this company was brought back from the dead. >> it's had a huge run. it's one of those things, where you were part of it. it's terrific. i don't know if it can replicate that so quickly. >> you like to take a risk,

right? hello, research in motion. >> i like a mean -- >> i like a mean reversion trade like the next guy. i think yahoo! did that. it underperformed all of its peers for so long. they have a new ceo. everyone believes in her. tell me something i don't know. yahoo! now has to grow into all of the expectations. that's probably not my favorite place to be. >> you ever seen a situation like this? you could say the fundamentals at yahoo! have not necessarily changed, but the perception has. >> first of all, i work at yahoo!. take my comments with a grain of salt. we have a revolving door of ceos for years. yahoo! was basically trading at zero. it has 700 million global users. you can build a business with that, even if you think that most of the value is in the asian assets, japan, everything

else. so i'm happy. i'm a shareholder. great to have marisa on board. hopefully she can build the business and reenergize things. >> i mentioned cnbc has a business relationship with yahoo!. let's go to courtney reagan. >> shares of transocean are popping. a number of reports are saying transocean will settle the deep water horizon dispute with the department of justice. fines and penalties could be around $1.4 billion. that gulf of mexico accident from 2010, shares up 7.5%. >> courtney, thanks. pops and drops time. the biggest movers in midday trading. starting out with target. simon, what's going on there? >> it popped it had disappointing comps in december. the stock moved higher on it. >> j.b., the scoop on jcpenney.

>> it's interesting. fundamentally speaking, same-store sales were not great. stocks had a pretty big run since thanksgiving. up 30%. >> stephanie, sun trust bank getting a drop today. >> downgraded by two firms. it was up 670% last year. the fourth best financial stock in the s&p 500. kind of expensive. >> double up on you here, and wellpoint? >> wellpoint was downgraded with united health care by deutsche bank. it's concerns about pricing. getting less pricing and not able to offset it with higher costs. if jobs start to improve, these stocks trade on employment. >> josh, hormel. >> looks fantastic. >> aside from the chili. >> at a new high. they'll buy the skippy peanut butter brand from unilever.

in addition to which, 47% annual dividend hike. >> simon, priceline? >> upgraded to buy from bank of america and merrill lynch. they like the kayak acquisition. we like it. >> the pop for sleeping, talk about a day of rest, january 3rd is national sleep day. a number of websites are offering tips on how to observe it, including napping at work, sharing photos of snoozing pets. do not overdo your celebrations, one study from last year says too much sleep can be harmful as well. >> up next, we set up shop for our top three trades of the day and the slcelebrity activist battle over herbalife. and gloeold slips to a near two-week high.

[ male announcer ] where do you turn for legal matters? at legalzoom, we've created a better place to handle your legal needs. maybe you have questions about incorporating a business you'd like to start. or questions about protecting your family with a will or living trust. and you'd like to find the right attorney to help guide you along, answer any questions and offer advice. with an "a" rating from the better business bureau legalzoom helps you get personalized and affordable legal protection. in most states, a legal plan attorney is available with every personalized document to answer any questions. get started at legalzoom.com today. and now you're protected. get started at legalzoom.com today. i've always had to keep my eye on her... but, i didn't always watch out for myself. with so much noise about health care... i tuned it all out. with unitedhealthcare, i get information that matters...

my individual health profile. not random statistics. they even reward me for addressing my health risks. so i'm doing fine... but she's still going to give me a heart attack. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. i honestly loved smoking, and i honestly didn't think i would ever quit. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. it put me at ease that you could smoke on the first week. [ male announcer ] some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. if you notice any of these stop taking chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of depression or other mental health problems, which could get worse while taking chantix. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you develop these stop taking chantix and see your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening.

if you have a history of heart or blood vessel problems, tell your doctor if you have new or worse symptoms. get medical help right away if you have symptoms of a heart attack. use caution when driving or operating machinery. common side effects include nausea, trouble sleeping and unusual dreams. with chantix and with the support system it worked. it worked for me. [ male announcer ] ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. impact wool exports from new zealand, textile production in spain, and the use of medical technology in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing.

i'm marry thompson outside the federal courthouse in downtown manhattan where matthew martoma entered three not guilty pleas. he entered the courtroom hoemdihoemd i holding hands with his wife. he spoke calmly and clearly during his arraignment. on march 5th the two sides will see where they are in the discovery process. and during the hearing we learned the prosecution will not be submitting wiretaps as part of the evidence in the case. part of the case is that martoma

made a call to steve cohen of s.a.c. capital. and pros kuecutors say during t phone call martoma told cohen inside information about two drugs. outside the courtroom, after the hearing, martoma's lawyer, charles stillman spoke with the press. he asked if they had any discussions about a plea deal with the government. he said no he also said he expected to win the case while the government has successfully prosecuted a string of insider trading cases, he said because martoma is an innocent man. back to you. >> mary thompson down in lower manhattan for us. herbalife shares down 17% since bill lachtman called it a

pyramid scheme. we have word of another big investor taking the other side of that trade. a juicy turn. this is robert chapman. a lot of people may have forgotten him. he's been quieter than he used to be. robert chapman was a well-known activist and investor, ahead of so many out there now. he's credited for the term management in 13 ds. he was an activist in 2000 in herbalife. he has come out today and said he has taken, in his portfolio, which is not a huge portfolio, but he gave me the number. it's not public. but he puts 35% of his portfolio in herbalife. >> so he has what would be termed as a massive position on the long side as ackman says he

has a position on the short side. >> his biggest position ever. >> overweight. >> he feels so strongly about this. let me go over a few quick things. he said in his piece, this long letter which i link to in my piece, he said the ftc was already there. to which i say that's what tyco said to me when we were talking about the sec years ago, but the s.e.c. came back. sometimes regulators change. he said the u.s. is just 20% of their business. that's true, but if something we were going to happen regulatory wise in the u.s., that creates a domino effect. and also he says the company is strong enough to survive. you could compare this, if something were to really happen to the for-profit education industry. were if there were rules requiring new disclosure or something that the regulators came down, the industry, not just herbalife, you would have a

hafrd reset. >> hard reset. >> it sounds as though he's -- spinning may be the wrong word here, but giving you a case that has nothing to do with the company's performance, but, well, the ftc has been there. if something happens, they could probably survive. >> the fundamentals look great. this is a story, unlike many i've seen in my career, where it's something much deeper. >> henry? >> i read your piece. i did not see you say he thinks it's an illegal pyramid scheme. what i saw, he thinks there's going to be a massive short squeeze in which ackman will have his hand handed to head ha. >> one fascinating part of this story so many people lined up

against ackman. a lot of people do not like him. people just want to pile in to bet against him. i have to ask this question, if it were steve iseman, the guy who did the for-profit education pitch doing this, i wonder if you would have seen the same reaction. >> there are a lot of other people, herb, lined up behind bill ackman, trying to ride his coattails. >> there are coattail riders all the time. this is such a complicated story, do the research on this, i've been working on this for close to a year, the nuances of understanding this industry are just so tremendous. just when you think you understand it, you turn something else over and say wait a minute. legally, economically, what is a pyramid scheme? it's not just saying it ain't a pyramid scheme. >> doesn't the short case rely on the fact that the ftc will step in and shut this down? isn't that what ackman needs to happen? >> i always say if your investment is based on courts,

congress or regulatory agencies, you might have a problem. >> not a great catalyst. >> but in this case, it's interesting to see if he is shining a spotlight and it creates a rumbling. >> is it too untouchable to urge somebody to buy the stock? >> my rule, controversy equals sell. if you're going for retirement, don't play this game. >> the company lawyered up a little bit. >> i think if the stock was really trading on fundamentals, it would be higher. think about the last quarter, double digit volumes, margin expansion. they raise the guidance. so the stock is not trading on fund tamental fundamentals. it's very difficult as a long-term investor to be invested in a name like that. gold has taken a break today. the yellow medal is gital is gi

some gains. let's go to jackie deangelis. >> the culprit for gold's move today none other than the u.s. dollar. gold is turning lower on today's dollar strength. is this a short-term move or the start of a troubling trend? let's talk futures now. rich is in chicago, and ant chi anthony is in new york. could we infer that gold is not a good trade until we so a resolution out of washington? >> that is one way, but i think any deal on spending cuts makes gold more attractive because it creates uncertainty in the market. if you look at the last debate this one will be full out mma. >> rich, for 12 years in a row, gold has seen gains on the year. will this be the year we will get 13 out of 13? >> i think we'll get 13 out of 13. the first quarter will be

troublesome here because gold is not a safe haven, it's a currency. you called it that at the top of the show. take a look at the chart. recent down trends still intact. we bottom out at 16.30, give a 50% retracement, right to 16.95, that's the line in the sand. we get out above that, maybe the bulls take command. below that the bears are still in charge. >> so you are looking for short-term head winds there. do you think gold will shine in 2013? logon to futuresnow@cnbc. tune in to this one because louis navellier will give us his outlook for the market in 2013. coming up on "halftime" can last year's hottest commodity give investors another boost this year? and the case for and against

microsoft after shares failed to impress investors last year. [ female announcer ] today, jason is here to volunteer to help those in need. when a twinge of back pain surprises him.

morning starts in high spirits, but there's a growing pain in his lower back. as lines grow longer, his pain continues to linger. but after a long day of helping others, he gets some helpful advice. just two aleve have the strength to keep back pain away all day. today, jason chose aleve. just two pills for all day pain relief. try aleve d for strong, all day long sinus and headache relief. woman: we're helping joplin, missouri, come back from a devastating tornado. man: and now we're helping the east coast recover from hurricane sandy. we're a leading global insurance company, based right here in america. we've repaid every dollar america lent us. everything, plus a profit of more than $22 billion. for the american people. thank you, america. helping people recover and rebuild -- that's what we do. now let's bring on tomorrow.

. losi butterfield. elosi. calvert. boehner. want to take you down to d.c., give you a shot of the house chamber, where the house begun voting on its next speaker, john boehner expected to win re-election. wasn't always easy getting his troops in line during the fiscal cliff negotiations. but, again, speaker boehner suspected to win re-election for the 113th congress. any surprises happen we'll let you know about them. that's the process going on right down in the house chamber. it's time to get a realtime

tried with keith mccullough. big move in stocks is what you see. good to see you. happy new year. what's going on? >> i think you have to really think through what growth has started to do here, scott. that's stabilize it. we have gone from growth slowing to where the fed had to provide a tremendous amount of whatever that was to growth stabilizing, in spite of the fed and congress. so, what doesn't like growth stabilizing or growth accelerating would be gold. and it would also be bonds. so we're bearish on gold, bearish on bonds and bullish on stocks. >> i don't know if you heard the conversation we had yesterday with lee cooperman, you paint a similar scenario. bonds look rich. you have stocks looking cheap. if things sort of line up in place, europe is not as bad as it seems to have been. china has gotten off the mat. u.s. economy doing all right.

housing all right. >> i would differ in particular with tepper on the valuation piece. i don't start with valuation ever. i start with growth. at the end of the day i think that will scare people out of bonds from a fund flow perspective. fund flows have been unbelievably strong. even the permeatibles have been strong. they have had flows despite the price appreciation in equities. to scare people out of bonds you need a growth scare on the upside. you have a big catalyst tomorrow with the unemployment report. all the leading indicators ahead of that, the adp number, jobless claims below 85, they are all saying bernanke could have his biggest issue yet, which is the bond market. he signaled if any expectation comes close to a 6 handle, he's

out of the way. which is bearish for gold and bullish for stocks. >> thanks. have to have you back on soon. >> thanks. microsoft is underperforming the market. today they are trading near 52-week lows. will 2013 be the year share holders get rewarded? simon baker bullish on microsoft, henry blodget is a bear. why are you bearish? >> the best thing going for microsoft now, it's a cheap stock what has done terribly for years. eventually -- >> that argument is old. >> fundamentally they are in a terrible place, especially over the long-term. their core asset, windows gets worse by the day in terms of competitive power. office is underthreat. no core business growth there. >> henry, that's why it's a

consensus and a 52-week low. windows 8 is revolutionary. they did a poor job hitting the channels last month. people who use it love it nokia phone has gone up from 2.5 to 3.5. they have a conference next week with the new mobile phones coming out. it is very good. it's a complicated company. i'm talking about the consumer side. the enterprise business doing very, very well. microsoft will come into its own this year. buy it. it might go -- >> you're laughing. >> blodget is laughing at you. >> no he's laughing at you. >> what i hear is cheap stock. >> not cheap. revolutionary. take the pcs, everyone in a year or two from now will be on their pc, touching it all over the place off his ipad on it. that's where the business will go. >> if the business goes into that, microsoft is in trouble.

the pc biz as soon as shrinking. why? because the cell phone business is exploding and the tablet business is exploding. microsoft launched the surface. you know how many they're selling? about 40-1 of their tablets versus ipads. >> they will take over all of r.i.m.'s business. >> they will take over blackberry and that will catapult them? >> i'm talking about where the business is going. in terms of research in motion going down, microsoft will go forward. it's revolutionary. they love it. we talked about why apple is not doing well? they're not revolutionary. this is the first time that microsoft has come out with something that is original, developers are loving it people are excited about it. >> gavel coming down. josh brown who made the more compelling argument here? it was a good argument. >> it was spirited, but simon, my brother, i got a 6-year-old

and a 3-year-old, they will never see a pc ever and they will not know what windows is. >> you're the guy who liked research in motion. you're the guy who bought research in motion. >> i bought worse things. i don't think the boomerang comes back around microsoft's way. i don't think they innovated quickly enough. the only catalyst is if baumer steps away. >> when we return, it's the hotte hottest commodity trade of the year what is it? mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance

is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. suddenly, she does something unexpected and you see the woman you fell in love with. she's everything to you. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications,

and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial.

good morning everyone from chicago. welcome to morning star. next up, living with the golden globes of mutual fund business. the 2013 managers of the year will be unveiled live. five five-star investors who snow how to make money in fair markets and foul. top of the hour, morning star managers of the year, live from chicago. on "power lunch." tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account with a $50,000 deposit, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and get 6 months commission-free trades. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5373.

women come back. oil and gold may dominate the headlines when it comes to hot commodities. but another story may dominate for 2012. what is it? >> scott, it's lumber p.m. workers at idaho forest group have a wide flurry of producers. they work in the northwest and into canada, dealing with white pine webs fir trees, using complex machinery worth many millions. a very capital intensive business. but the effort was well worth it. futures established themselves single best performer of the year. with an upside of about 48%. as a result, raw material is having its 15 minutes. >> people don't really think about the wood in their walls until they want to hang a picture for example. in terms of commodities, it is

kind of a liquid commodity. largely and overlooked commodity and i think that people who are involved in this industry are enjoying being in spotlight for once. >> in idaho there is not much time it bask. ifg's facilities has 150 loads of log truckes a day. they have to be debarked, analyzed and chopped into wood planks before they are shipped to customers like lowe's and home depot. they soar optimistic, they brought one mill on-line and are considered add prg ducks hours this summer, bringing head count to record levels. despite shaky recovery, elements that have market out toing the lumber continues, saying they see few head winds for 2013. >> kate, thanks. housing play, right, stephanie, which stock? >> weyerhauser. it is at a 52-week high.

but i this that i their 6.2 million acres of timber is very attractive and still undervalued. it is about 20% discount to nav. plus they have cost advantages as well. i think, again, on a pull back i would be more inclined to buy more. i don't want it buy it up here. >> what's the hottest commodity of 2013? >> i think from a pure reversion standpoint one look at coffee down 36% last year. worst than the mainstream commodities. my friends at health funds that trade these things will tell that you commodities tend to mean revert because of the planting cycle et cetera so this could be more exciting than lumber next year. >> thanks so much. u.s. dollar strengthening to a three-week high. is it a signal the rally we've seen in stocks may be coming to an end? let's play money in motion with andy bush. andy, good to see you again. happy new year. >> thanks very much. >> what is the trade and what are the levels? >> yeah.

the trade is to sell what used to be support and now is going to be resistant on the upside for the euro. what we have seen is euro and euro yen have fallen over the last 24 hours as a little bit of profit taking and stocks. but this is something that we look for in currency markets where you get like a break in the total risk on trade that's been going on. so i want to sell around 131.70. leave a tight stopper on 132 and a quarter. the game at the early part of january is not to look for mega trends or big continuation of nation. >> i have it run, andy.

[ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ starts with arthritis pain and a choice. take tylenol or take aleve, the #1 recommended pain reliever by orthopedic doctors. just two aleve can keep pain away all day. back to the news.

[ male announcer ] where do you turn for legal matters? at legalzoom, we've created a better place to handle your legal needs. maybe you have questions about incorporating a business you'd like to start. or questions about protecting your family with a will or living trust. and you'd like to find the right attorney to help guide you along, answer any questions and offer advice. with an "a" rating from the better business bureau legalzoom helps you get personalized and affordable legal protection. in most states, a legal plan attorney is available with every personalized document to answer any questions. get started at legalzoom.com today. and now you're protected.